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      1.  首页 >> 理论经济学 >> 滚动新闻
        马克·赞迪:美国经济正处于脆弱关口
        2019年10月05日 22:43 来源:新华社 作者: 字号

        内容摘要:

        关键词:

        作者简介:

          新华社华盛顿10月4日电 财经观察:美国就业数据的“表里”与“喜忧”

          新华社记者杨承霖

          尽管官方数据显示美国失业率降至近半个世纪以来新低,但一些分析人士发现,美国新增就业数量和薪资增长已开始显著放缓,市场对于经济前景的困惑与担忧仍难以消散。

          美国政府4日公布的数据显示,美国9月失业率环比下降0.2个百分点至3.5%,为1969年12月以来新低。但非农部门9月新增就业岗位13.6万个,低于市场预期。

          有分析人士发现,美国官方公布的数据显示,美国非农部门新增就业岗位8月和9月连续两月显著低于市场预期,这意味着美国就业增长出现放缓迹象。英国牛津经济咨询社高级经济学家莉迪娅·布苏尔指出,美国就业增长步伐正在放缓。

          美国官方数据显示,截至9月,今年美国月均新增就业岗位16.1万个,低于去年的月均22.3万个。而长期跟踪美国私人部门就业状况的美国自动数据处理公司2日也表示,过去三个月美国私人部门月均新增就业数量远低于去年同期。该公司研究部联合主管阿胡·伊尔德马兹表示,美国就业市场已显露出放缓迹象。

          此外,另有业界人士注意到美国员工的薪资增长也开始放缓,反映出企业对经济前景的看法越发谨慎。美国官方数据显示,9月美国私人非农员工平均时薪较上月下降1美分至28.09美元。

          世界大型企业研究会北美首席经济学家加德·莱瓦农表示,工资略有下降可能让企业在寻找适合的工人时更加困难。英国牛津经济咨询社首席美国经济学家格雷戈里·达科表示,在“明天看起来比今天更严峻的环境下”,企业必然会谨慎对待薪资涨幅。

          美国联博资产管理公司资深美国经济学家埃里克·威诺格拉德认为,当前对美国经济来说最重要的问题是,在经济增长持续放缓的情况下,就业市场的表现“还能保持多久”。

          近期不断有知名机构经济学家指出,受美国外部经贸环境和内部不确定性等不利因素影响,美国经济步入“关键关口”且存在脆弱性,这也将波及美国就业市场。

          德意志银行证券公司首席经济学家托斯滕·斯洛克表示,由于贸易摩擦给经济带来下行压力,美国经济处于“更加脆弱且不稳定的处境下”。摩根士丹利首席美国经济学家埃伦·曾特纳也表示,经贸紧张局势以及美国国会众议院启动对美国总统特朗普的弹劾调查等政治因素也加剧了不确定性,而任何不确定性都不利于企业和家庭开支。

          穆迪首席经济学家马克·赞迪日前也指出,美国经济正处于脆弱关口。当前市场对劳动力的需求开始疲软,雇佣状况整体走弱。美国企业在招聘方面也已经变得更加谨慎,小企业尤其犹豫不决。如果企业进一步缩减开支,失业率将开始上升。

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